Event Preview
How y’all doing, forex buddies? New Zealand isn’t the only one that will be releasing its latest retail sales report this week since Canada will be releasing its September retail sales report tomorrow (Nov. 23, 1:30 pm GMT) .And if you wanna get up to speed on what happened last time and what’s expected this time, then it’s time to read up on another edition of my Event Preview.
What Happened last time ?
In my previous Event Preview for Canada’s August retail sales report, I noted that the leading and related indicators were mixed. On the one hand, Canada’s August jobs report showed that wage growth picked up the pace while the retail trade sector increased its payrolls.
But on the other hand, the August trade report hinted that demand for vehicles and general consumer goods weakened in August, which is contrary to the consensus that headline retail sales will increase at a faster pace, as well as the implied consensus that a pickup in non-vehicles sales will drive up retail sales growth and boost the core reading.
I also noted back then that historical tendencies for the headline reading were fuzzy but that the core reading had a historical tendency to print worse-than-expected readings.
As it turns out, the August retail sales report revealed that headline retail sales in Canada fell by 0.3% in August, which is in-line with the August trade report but contrary to the consensus that headline retail sales would increase 0.5% (+0.4% previous).
And a closer look at the report shows that 8 of the 11 retail store types reported declines in sales.As such, the core reading contracted by 0.7% instead of rising by 0.3% as expected (+0.2% previous), which is also in-line with the August trade report and affirmed the historical tendency for downside surprises.In summary, Canada’s August retail sales report was pretty bad, which is why the Loonie got dumped hard. Although Canada’s CPI report, which was released simultaneously with the retail sales report, was also pretty disappointing (+0.2% vs. +0.3% expected, +0.1% previous) and likely helped to push the Loonie lower.
How y’all doing, forex buddies? New Zealand isn’t the only one that will be releasing its latest retail sales report this week since Canada will be releasing its September retail sales report tomorrow (Nov. 23, 1:30 pm GMT) .And if you wanna get up to speed on what happened last time and what’s expected this time, then it’s time to read up on another edition of my Event Preview.
What Happened last time ?
*Headline retail sales m/m: -0.3% vs. +0.5% expected, +0.4% previous
*Core retail sales m/m: -0.7% vs. +0.3% expected, +0.2% previousIn my previous Event Preview for Canada’s August retail sales report, I noted that the leading and related indicators were mixed. On the one hand, Canada’s August jobs report showed that wage growth picked up the pace while the retail trade sector increased its payrolls.
But on the other hand, the August trade report hinted that demand for vehicles and general consumer goods weakened in August, which is contrary to the consensus that headline retail sales will increase at a faster pace, as well as the implied consensus that a pickup in non-vehicles sales will drive up retail sales growth and boost the core reading.
I also noted back then that historical tendencies for the headline reading were fuzzy but that the core reading had a historical tendency to print worse-than-expected readings.
As it turns out, the August retail sales report revealed that headline retail sales in Canada fell by 0.3% in August, which is in-line with the August trade report but contrary to the consensus that headline retail sales would increase 0.5% (+0.4% previous).
And a closer look at the report shows that 8 of the 11 retail store types reported declines in sales.As such, the core reading contracted by 0.7% instead of rising by 0.3% as expected (+0.2% previous), which is also in-line with the August trade report and affirmed the historical tendency for downside surprises.In summary, Canada’s August retail sales report was pretty bad, which is why the Loonie got dumped hard. Although Canada’s CPI report, which was released simultaneously with the retail sales report, was also pretty disappointing (+0.2% vs. +0.3% expected, +0.1% previous) and likely helped to push the Loonie lower.
What Expected this.time?
*Headline retail sales m/m: +0.9% expected vs. -0.3% previous
*Core retail sales m/m: +1.0% expected vs. -0.7% previous
For the upcoming September retail sales report, the general consensus among economists is that.
Canada’s headline retail sales increased by 0.9% month-on-month after the previous months 0.3% slide. The core reading, meanwhile, is expected to rebound by a solid 1.0% after dropping by 0.7% previously.
Most analysts therefore think that consumer spending strengthened in September. Moreover, the core reading (excludes vehicles sales) is expected to outpace the headline reading (includes vehicles sales), so there is also an implied consensus that non-vehicles sales increased substantially and that vehicles sales may have weakened further.
The consensus, therefore, is that retail sales strengthened in Canada during the August period.
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